Bảng xếp hạng dự kiến NBA 2023
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Cuộc đua tại Hội nghị miền Đông 2023-24 còn rất nhiều điều đáng mong chờ sau khi hạt giống số tám Miami Heat của mùa giải trước hạ gục Giannis Antetokounmpo và tay vợt số 1. Hạt giống số 1 Milwaukee Bucks, sau đó là hạt giống số 5 New York Knicks, rồi đến hạt giống số 2 Boston Celtics, trước khi khuất phục trước Nikola Jokic và Denver Nuggets trong trận chung kết NBA Show
Theo hội đồng chuyên gia của chúng tôi, Bucks và Celtics có vẻ sẽ giữ vững vị trí là những đội được yêu thích nhất ở miền Đông, trong khi Cleveland Cavaliers vượt qua Philadelphia 76ers, những đội đang sa lầy vào bộ phim truyền hình có thể ảnh hưởng đáng kể đến mùa giải của họ Liệu các nhà đương kim vô địch đại hội có một lần nữa chứng tỏ mình xứng đáng và vượt lên dẫn trước? Hội đồng chuyên gia của chúng tôi dự đoán thành tích thắng-thua của cả 15 đội miền Đông Ghi chú. Dự báo NBA mùa hè 2023-24 của chúng tôi tiếp tục vào thứ Tư với dự đoán bảng xếp hạng Western Conference. Vào thứ Ba, chúng tôi đã tiết lộ những lựa chọn của mình về những người chơi sẽ giành được các giải thưởng lớn nhất của giải đấu, bao gồm MVP, DPOY và hơn thế nữa Bảng xếp hạng Hội nghị phía Đông Nuggets sẽ cố gắng bảo vệ danh hiệu của mình (Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire) Mùa giải NBA 2023-24 sẽ bắt đầu vào tuần tới, vì vậy đã đến lúc công bố xếp hạng và thứ hạng dự đoán trước mùa giải của chúng tôi cho tất cả các đội NBA Ngoài việc đăng bảng xếp hạng và một số bình luận liên quan, chúng tôi cũng sẽ cung cấp thông tin tổng quan về các phương pháp chúng tôi sử dụng để xếp hạng các đội. Để biết thêm chi tiết về điều đó, bạn có thể đọc bài đăng của chúng tôi giải thích cách chúng tôi xếp hạng NBA trước mùa giải Menu dự đoán và xếp hạng NBA Preseason
Dự đoán và chọn cá cược trận đấu NBAHiện có sẵn các ưu đãi truy cập miễn phí và chiết khấu cho các lựa chọn và dự đoán trận đấu NBA dựa trên dữ liệu của chúng tôi (người chiến thắng trận đấu, chênh lệch điểm, trên/dưới và dòng tiền). Xem trang đăng ký của chúng tôi để biết chi tiết Bảng xếp hạng tiền mùa giải NBA 2023-24 BetIQBảng bên dưới hiển thị thứ hạng trước mùa giải 2023-24 của chúng tôi cho tất cả 30 đội NBA, cùng với xếp hạng dự đoán liên quan của mỗi đội cho mùa giải thông thường Xếp hạngĐội xếp hạng năm 2023Năm ngoáiThay đổi YOYPhạm vi chiến thắng đồng thuậnSố trận thắng trung bình có trọng số1Boston Celtics5. 05. 6-0. 653. 9 - 54. 454. 12Milwaukee Bucks4. 63. 4+1. 253. 0 - 53. 853. 43Denver Nuggets4. 24. 0+0. 251. 0 - 52. 051. 74Phoenix Suns3. 92. 1+1. 850. 8 - 52. 051. 15Cleveland Cavaliers3. 14. 2-1. 149. 2 - 50. 449. 66Golden State Warriors2. 61. 8+0. 847. 0 - 47. 547. 27Philadelphia 76ers2. 63. 9-1. 347. 6 - 48. 447. 98Los Angeles Lakers2. 41. 1+1. 346. 5 - 46. 846. 69Los Angeles Clippers2. 00. 6+1. 445. 2 - 46. 145. 710Memphis Grizzlies1. 82. 8-1. 045. 0 - 46. 145. 511Sacramento Kings1. 41. 3+0. 143. 5 - 44. 043. 812Minnesota Timberwolves1. 30. 1+1. 243. 6 - 44. 143. 913Oklahoma City Thunder1. 2-0. 3+1. 543. 5 - 44. 443. 814New York Knicks1. 12. 4-1. 344. 1 - 44. 344. 215New Orleans Hornets1. 11. 3-0. 243. 3 - 43. 843. 516Dallas Mavericks1. 10. 2+0. 942. 7 - 44. 143. 517Miami Heat0. 91. 2-0. 344. 1 - 44. 244. 218Atlanta Hawks0. 20. 6-0. 441. 5 - 42. 442. 019Indiana Pacers-1. 4-3. 2+1. 837. 5 - 37. 837. 620Chicago Bulls-1. 61. 1-2. 736. 8 - 37. 337. 221Brooklyn Nets-1. 71. 0-2. 736. 5 - 36. 936. 622Orlando Magic-1. 8-2. 6+0. 836. 3 - 37. 036. 723Utah Jazz-2. 0-1. 7-0. 335. 0 - 35. 735. 424Toronto Raptors-2. 21. 5-3. 735. 4 - 35. 935. 625Houston Rockets-3. 7-7. 2+3. 530. 9 - 31. 331. 226Charlotte Bobcats-4. 0-5. 1+1. 130. 5 - 31. 431. 027San Antonio Spurs-4. 6-8. 7+4. 127. 8 - 29. 128. 528Portland Trail Blazers-5. 1-3. 2-1. 927. 1 - 28. 027. 429Detroit Pistons-5. 4-7. 0+1. 626. 6 - 27. 927. 530Washington Wizards-7. 0-1. 2-5. 823. 0 - 24. 023. 7 Important Rankings NotesPlayoff Adjustments vs. Regular SeasonA few years ago, we began making a few adjustments to NBA team ratings for the playoffs. The ratings in the table above represent our regular-season predictive ratings. These ratings determine win odds for regular-season games, and we use them to project outcomes like regular-season win totals and division-winner odds Team RatingsTeam ratings are expressed as points better (positive rating) or worse (negative rating) than a “perfectly average” NBA team when playing on a neutral court Last Year RatingLast Year Rating means each team’s final predictive rating from the 2022-23 season, and Change represents the difference between Last Year Rating and this year’s preseason rating Interpreting the ChangesPositive “Change” values mean a team is expected to improve its performance level over last year; negative values mean expected declines The final two columns show info about the win total projections of the component systems that we blended in order to create our ratings Return to Main Menu Free Football PicksBetting - Survivor - Pick’em Start Free TrialGet Season Discounts NBA Preseason Rankings HighlightsCeltics and Bucks on Top, AgainThe Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks were the top two teams in our preseason rankings last year, and are also in the same spot this year. Boston was the favorite in the NBA playoffs a year ago, until they were upset by Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals. Milwaukee battled a lot of injuries, and were knocked out earlier. But they also added Damian Lillard this year and are again one of the favorites The defending champion Denver Nuggets are third, and have a rating entering this year very similar to their end-of-season rating from a year ago. This is a reminder that even though the Nuggets won the title, they weren’t the clearly best team a year ago, and were in fact the third-highest rated team entering the postseason (though the top team in the West) Large Middle ClassLast year, only six teams were projected with a power rating between +2. 0 and -2. 0, as we projected a large group of “have’s” and “have-nots. ” But things have shifted pretty quickly. This year, half the league has a rating between +2. 0 and -2. 0, meaning we view half the league as being within two points of an average team at the outset The No. 9 Los Angeles Clippers, for example, are closer in power rating to the No. 23 Utah Jazz than to the No. 3 Denver Nuggets Stronger and Deeper Western ConferenceThe top two teams, and four of the top six, are from the Eastern Conference. But nine of our top 13 teams are from the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is the ninth-highest rated team in the West, but are rated just ahead of the New York Knicks, who would be the fifth-highest rated team in the East. So the battle for the last spots in the West could be quite competitive, and between potentially some of the top teams Notable Player MovementHere’s a full summary of player movement for the 2023-24 season. A few notable moves this offseason include
Return to Main Menu Western Conference PredictionsEven before the season starts, the numbers here may differ slightly from our NBA projected standings page. That isn’t us adjusting numbers behind the scenes; it’s just the result of random variance in our season simulations, which re-run daily, even in the preseason Once the 2023-24 NBA season begins, our projected standings page will update every day based on the previous day’s results NorthwestWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedNBA ChampsDenver51. 530. 586. 4%56. 1%21. 3%13. 1%Minnesota43. 938. 160. 7%19. 3%4. 9%1. 0%Okla City43. 838. 259. 0%19. 1%5. 2%1. 1%Utah35. 646. 426. 1%4. 8%0. 7%0. 2%Portland27. 354. 76. 3%0. 7%0. 0%0. 0%PacificWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedNBA ChampsPhoenix51. 330. 784. 9%34. 2%18. 7%10. 7%Golden State47. 234. 873. 3%19. 9%9. 8%6. 1%LA Lakers46. 735. 370. 7%18. 7%9. 4%6. 3%LA Clippers45. 636. 467. 8%16. 0%7. 7%3. 5%Sacramento43. 738. 360. 0%11. 3%4. 9%1. 5%SouthwestWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedNBA ChampsMemphis45. 436. 667. 0%37. 8%7. 5%2. 6%New Orleans43. 638. 458. 0%28. 6%5. 0%1. 5%Dallas43. 438. 657. 9%28. 4%4. 7%2. 9%Houston31. 250. 813. 5%3. 6%0. 2%0. 1%San Antonio28. 453. 68. 5%1. 7%0. 1%0. 1%Most Likely Division WinnersNorthwest. Denver (56%) Southwest. Memphis (38%) Pacific. Phoenix (34%) Denver is just ahead of Phoenix in win total projections, though Denver has the higher chances of winning its division thanks to a projected easier set of opponents. In fact, four of the top five Western Conference teams by projected win total are in the Pacific Division Western Conference OutlookThe Western Conference has a large group of teams that have legitimate playoff aspirations, and then a small group who are seen as building for the future Eleven different teams have playoff odds over 50% entering the season. Five different teams are projected for between 43. 4 and 43. 9 wins, showing how narrow the cut line could be between getting into the playoffs without having to participate in the play-in tournament, or missing out on it altogether Denver and Phoenix are the clear title favorites out of the West, while Golden State and the Los Angeles Lakers also have title aspirations Most Likely NBA Champion. Denver NuggetsDenver didn’t make many changes from last year’s title squad. But after several years of perennial playoff appearances and not quite breaking through, they finally did so. As long as Nikola Jokic is healthy and in his prime, they should be in contention Denver is just ahead of Phoenix, who has made some significant changes and will now be built around Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have legitimate title aspirations, though the Lakers will need Anthony Davis to stay healthier to realize them Return to Main Menu Free Football PicksBetting - Survivor - Pick’em Start Free TrialGet Season Discounts Eastern Conference PredictionsAtlanticWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedNBA ChampsBoston54. 227. 895. 1%57. 0%31. 0%18. 9%Philadelphia48. 133. 983. 9%23. 3%10. 3%3. 8%New York44. 337. 770. 8%13. 7%5. 4%1. 4%Brooklyn36. 645. 440. 0%3. 3%1. 0%0. 4%Toronto35. 746. 335. 8%2. 7%0. 7%0. 4%CentralWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedNBA ChampsMilwaukee53. 128. 993. 7%55. 2%26. 3%17. 5%Cleveland49. 732. 387. 2%34. 4%14. 0%2. 5%Indiana37. 744. 342. 6%5. 1%1. 2%0. 2%Chicago37. 144. 941. 9%4. 7%1. 1%0. 3%Detroit27. 554. 511. 0%0. 5%0. 1%0. 0%SoutheastWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedNBA ChampsMiami44. 237. 870. 3%43. 6%4. 6%2. 6%Atlanta41. 940. 162. 9%34. 0%3. 4%1. 0%Orlando36. 745. 340. 7%15. 8%0. 9%0. 3%Charlotte31. 051. 019. 5%5. 5%0. 1%0. 1%Washington23. 758. 34. 8%1. 1%0. 0%0. 0%Most Likely Division WinnersCentral. Milwaukee (55%) Southeast. Miami (44%) Atlantic. Boston (57%) Milwaukee made a major move by acquiring Damian Lillard, a move that could have shifted the Eastern odds, as Miami was also interested in acquiring the star guard Meanwhile, Jrue Holiday was part of that trade, and the most integral piece to leave Milwaukee, but was immediately traded to Boston, giving them a different look at point guard with Marcus Smart gone Eastern Conference OutlookBoston and Milwaukee look like the clear class of the East, with Miami lurking as well, and Cleveland and Donovan Mitchell in the mix. Philadelphia has some question marks with the James Harden situation, and after that it’s pretty wide open In a stark contrast to the West, we do not project the eighth-best team in the East to be above . 500, or even have over 38. 0 wins. Obviously, as the season plays out, some teams will perform better than expected and others will be worse, and so some team is likely to emerge as a stronger contender But as of the preseason, we project five teams for between 35. 7 and 37. 7 wins, all competing for the final playoff spots Most Likely NBA Champion. Boston CelticsWe have Boston narrowly ahead of Milwaukee in regular season wins as well as slightly higher in title odds. But they are very close with Milwaukee, and the two are the overall favorites to win the NBA title based on the moves they have made Damian Lillard gives Giannis Antetokounmpo a true second star to play with. Jrue Holiday, meanwhile, gives Boston the type of guard facilitator who can help unlock a great 1-2-3 punch with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown Return to Main Menu 2023-24 NBA Playoff PredictionsThese are our projections for the playoff odds and advancement odds in both conferences. The “Reach Playoffs” column shows the percent of our season simulations in which each team reached the first round of the NBA playoffs (Seeds 1 to 8). If a team qualifies in the No. 7 to No. 10 spot but loses the play-in tournament, that’s counted as missing the playoffs here However, we do list 10 teams for each conference, so you can see which teams we think will most likely be a part of the play-in tournament Western Conference Playoff ProjectionsSeedTeamReach PlayoffsConf. SemisConf. FinalsNBA FinalsNBA Champ1Denver86%60%38%23%13%2Phoenix85%56%34%19%11%3Golden State73%42%23%12%6%4LA Lakers71%42%23%12%6%5LA Clippers68%35%16%8%3%6Memphis67%31%14%6%3%7Minnesota61%21%8%3%1%8Sacramento60%25%10%4%2%9Oklahoma City59%22%8%3%1%10New Orleans58%24%9%4%2%Eastern Conference Playoff ProjectionsSeedTeamReach PlayoffsConf. SemisConf. FinalsNBA FinalsNBA Champ1Boston95%76%53%33%19%2Milwaukee94%74%51%31%18%3Cleveland87%44%18%7%2%4Philadelphia84%47%22%9%4%5New York71%30%11%4%1%6Miami70%36%16%7%3%7Atlanta63%24%9%3%1%8Indiana43%11%3%1%0%9Chicago42%13%4%1%0%10Brooklyn40%13%4%1%0%Round-By-Round PredictionsBased on the above projected seeding and advancement odds, here is our best guess at the actual round-by-round results for the playoffs Play-In GamesOklahoma City over New Orleans (New Orleans eliminated) Chicago over Brooklyn (Brooklyn eliminated) First RoundNo. 1 Denver over No. 8 Sacramento No. 1 Boston over No. 8 Indiana Conference SemifinalsNo. 1 Denver over No. 4 LA Lakers No. 1 Boston over No. 4 Philadelphia Conference FinalsNo. 1 Denver over No. 2 Phoenix NBA FinalsNo. 1 Boston over No. 1 Denver Return to Main Menu 2023 In-Season Tournament ProjectionsFor 2023, the NBA is introducing an In-Season Tournament to be played in November and early December. The teams in each conference have been divided into three different groups of five teams. Regular season games scheduled for Tuesdays and Fridays in November will also count toward the tournament group standings The first-place team from each group, plus the highest-ranked second-place finisher in each conference, will advance to the knockout rounds. The quarterfinals will be hosted by the higher-seeded teams within each conference after group play, on December 4th and 5th. The semifinals and finals will take place in Las Vegas, on December 7th and 9th Here are our projections for each group. We list average projected wins (out of 4 games) in the group, the odds of going 4-0 in the group, and the overall estimated odds of finishing in 1st place in the group Eastern Conference Group ATeamAvg. WinsUndefeatedGroup 1st PlaceCleveland2. 514%32%Philadelphia2. 514%31%Atlanta2. 16%19%Indiana1. 83%13%Detroit1. 21%4%Eastern Conference Group BTeamAvg. WinsUndefeatedGroup 1st PlaceMilwaukee2. 823%42%New York2. 39%25%Miami2. 39%23%Charlotte1. 52%7%Washington1. 10%3%Eastern Conference Group CTeamAvg. WinsUndefeatedGroup 1st PlaceBoston2. 925%47%Chicago1. 83%14%Brooklyn1. 83%14%Orlando1. 84%14%Toronto1. 73%12%Western Conference Group ATeamAvg. WinsUndefeatedGroup 1st PlacePhoenix2. 617%37%LA Lakers2. 411%29%Memphis2. 06%19%Utah1. 73%11%Portland1. 31%5%Western Conference Group BTeamAvg. WinsUndefeatedGroup 1st PlaceDenver2. 515%35%LA Clippers2. 27%22%New Orleans2. 06%20%Dallas2. 05%18%Houston1. 31%5%Western Conference Group CTeamAvg. WinsUndefeatedGroup 1st PlaceGolden State2. 311%28%Sacramento2. 28%23%Minnesota2. 28%23%Oklahoma City2. 17%21%San Antonio1. 21%5%Return to Main Menu How We Make NBA ProjectionsOur projections are based on our 2023-24 NBA preseason ratings. We use those ratings to simulate the full 2023-24 NBA season, including the playoffs, thousands of times Starting three years ago, we also introduced a few adjustments to NBA team ratings for the playoffs to better account for player/minute distributions. Teams typically shorten their rotations and give more minutes to their top players in the postseason. Our projections now do a better job of adjusting for that effect We average the individual team outcomes in the thousands of season simulations that we run. Those averages become our official preseason projections Injuries and Other Roster ChangesAs they do every season, injuries and trades will derail at least a few of our preseason forecasts. That’s an inevitable risk of trying to predict the distant future. However, we do incorporate variance into our season simulations to help account for those possibilities Projections Represent AveragesThe projections are the average results from thousands of simulations. In any individual simulation (or in the real season), some teams will do significantly better or worse than our average projection. But we don’t know which teams those will be. Because of this dynamic, the preseason projections generally look a little conservative at the extreme ends. Play-In Tournament NoteThese projections include the updated playoff format that began three years ago. Teams that finish seventh through 10th in each conference battle for the final two playoff spots in a play-in tournament The playoff odds listed in various places in this article do not count making the play-in tournament but missing out on a first-round playoff spot as reaching the playoffs. However, getting into the first round after coming through the play-in tournament does count as reaching the playoffs Return to Main Menu Making NBA Futures Bets Based On These PredictionsWe also want to provide some quick thoughts to the NBA bettors out there If you’re considering using the information here to make NBA futures bets (e. g. a preseason bet on a team’s regular-season win total, or on a team to win its division or the NBA championship), please keep a few things in mind Future Payout Odds and Futures WagersIdentifying value in current NBA futures odds based on our preseason projections requires a more involved process than we cover here. We’ve previously written about how to evaluate futures odds, which you should read if you’re considering betting NBA futures Playoff Rotation ImpactsOur projections apply only a few rough adjustments to model the shortened rotations seen in the NBA playoffs. So, playoff advancement odds may be a relative weak spot in our model Historical Performance of ProjectionsWe have yet to calculate the historical profits or losses that would have resulted from making futures bets wherever our preseason NBA projections indicated there was an edge, or for a select subset of those bets (e. g. the biggest outliers compared to betting market odds) If our projections are very far off consensus futures odds in the NBA betting markets, we’re more likely to believe that our models are missing something (and that we should go back and adjust our team ratings) than to believe we’ve uncovered some huge betting edge that no one else realizes. Wrapping UpPlenty of these season projections will end up being wrong for lots of possible reasons. It’s important to understand that our goal is the overall accuracy of the system, and in particular the team ratings and projected regular-season win-loss records Even if the system as a whole ends up being more accurate than other NBA pundits or prediction methods, projections for any one specific team could still be far off that team’s actual results The value we bring to the table here is a systematic, data-driven approach that more precisely evaluates dynamics that human experts are typically bad at evaluating (e. g. the impact of schedule strength, or accounting for variance in expected team performance). Our system is driven not by subjective opinions, but by data that has demonstrated predictive value Who is going to the NBA Finals 2023?The Denver Nuggets are the 2023 NBA champions. Nikola Jokic put together a prolific performance to lead Denver to its first NBA title in franchise history, beating the Miami Heat 94-89 in Game 5 to take the series 4-1.
What teams made the NBA Playoffs 2023?Denver Nuggets. Memphis Grizzlies Sacramento Kings Phoenix Suns LA Clippers Golden State Warriors Los Angeles Lakers Minnesota Timberwolves New Orleans Pelicans (Eliminated in play-in) Who has the worst NBA record 2023?The Detroit Pistons had the worst record by a team in 2022-23, with a record of 17-65 What is the format for the NBA playoffs 2023?Each conference's bracket was fixed with no reseeding. All rounds were a best-of-seven series; a series ended when one team won four games, and that team advanced to the next round. All rounds, including the NBA Finals, were in a 2–2–1–1–1 format with regards to hosting. |
