What are the strongest predictors of whether people will vote in elections quizlet?

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CHAPTER 11 KEY TERMS

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Soft Money

Money used by political parties for voter registration, public education, and voter mobilization. Until 2002, when Congress passed legislation outlawing soft money, the government had imposed no limits on contributions or expenditures for such purposes

Single-Issue Voters

People who base their votes on candidates' or parties' positions on one particular issue of public policy, regardless of the candidates' or parties' positions on other issues.

Performance Voting

Basing votes for a candidate or party on how successfully the candidate or party performed while in office.

Party Label

A label carrying the party's "brand name," incorporating the policy positions and past performance voters attribute to it.

Party Identification

An individual's enduring affective or instrumental attachment to one of the political parties; the most accurate single predictor of voting behavior

Negative or Attack Campaigning

campaign content that attacks an opponent's position on an issue, performance in office, or personal traits

Mobilization

Also known as "getting out the vote." Mobilization occurs when activists working for parties, candidates, or interest groups ask members of the electorate to vote

Microtargeting

The process of targeting very specific groups of potential voters. For example, using databases that combine voter rolls with credit card purchase information or grocery store savings club records to identify potential supporters

Message

In a political campaign, the central thematic statement of why voters ought to prefer one candidate over others

Issue Voting

Voting for candidates based on their positions on specific issues, as opposed to their party or personal characteristics.

Independent Campaign Spending

Campaign spending--by a person or organization for or against a political candidate--that is not controlled by or coordinated with any candidate's campaign.

Focus Group

A method of gauging public opinion by observing a small number of people brought together to discuss specific issues, usually under the guidance of a moderator

Candidate

A person running for office

Coordinated Campaign Spending

Spending by the Democratic and Republican Party committees on behalf of individual congressional candidates.

CHAPTER SUMMARY

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The implementation of regular, free, and competitive elections provides citizens with a mechanism for determining who controls the government and holding public officials accountable. At the time the Constitution was ratified, the number of citizens who were allowed to participate in elections was small. Over time, the right to vote was extended to non-property holders, Native Americans, Blacks, women, and finally, young adults.

Despite the central role of voting in our republican form of government, millions of Americans choose not to vote. This is a logical consequence of the fact that no individual's vote is decisive and the reality that voting is costly. Nonetheless, a majority of those eligible to vote continue to turn out for presidential elections. The decision to vote is affected by personal characteristics (age, education, and income) as well as institutional factors (registration requirements and literacy tests). The decline in aggregate turnout since the 1960s, however, reflects a steep reduction in mobilization activity by political parties and candidates.

Most voters spend little time gathering information about politics. They base their choice on a variety of factors, including the party label, past performance, and issue positions of candidates and parties. Many voters also consider candidates' demographic attributes, such as their gender or race, and personal qualities, like competence or honesty. In a world where voters have little direct information about individual candidates and the challenges they will face, all of these characteristics serve as shortcuts, or cues, that suggest how candidates will perform in the future. Candidates are all too eager to provide these through their advertisements.

Politically ambitious candidates play a vital role in ensuring that elections remain competitive. Decisions about whether to run for office reflect the influence of national partisan trends and candidates' ability to raise enough money to mount an effective campaign. Modern congressional and presidential campaigns require vast sums of money, with much of it spent on television and radio advertising. The need for money raises the possibility that candidates will be responsive to donors rather than voters. Since the 1970s, a variety of reforms have tried to reduce the influence of money on elections. Fortunately, a wide variety of individuals, groups, and interests take part in financing campaigns and no single point of view predominates.

IMPORTANT QUESTIONS

Is voting important, or is only the right to vote important?

Most Americans claim to vote for the best candidate. Why then, does party affiliation predict voting patterns so well?

-THE LOGIC OF ELECTIONS

American democracy is representative democracy.

Delegation of authority raises the possibility of agency loss:

one imperfect solution is to hold regular, free, competitive elections

Madison

Madison stated the main differences between a democracy and a republic:

"...first, the delegation of the government, in the latter, to a small number of citizens elected by the rest;

secondly, the greater number of citizens, and greater sphere of the country, over which the latter may be extended."

THE LOGIC OF ELECTIONS

Elections work to ameliorate this delegation problem.

They give ordinary citizens a say in who represents them.

The prospect of future elections gives officeholders who want to keep or improve their jobs a motive to be responsive agents.

Elections

Elections provide powerful incentives for the small set of citizens who want to replace the current officeholders to keep a close eye on representatives and to provide critical evaluations of them to the public at large.

THE RIGHT TO VOTE

The practice of selecting leaders by ballot arrived in North America with the first English settlers.

They also brought with them the practice of limiting the franchise (the right to vote)

Only about half of the free adult male population was eligible to vote at the time the Constitution was adopted, but this has expanded to the point where almost all adult citizens are eligible.

SUFFRAGE FOR WOMEN

Almost all white men were allowed to vote by the early 1840s, but women did not gain the right to vote for 80 more years.

Suffragists felt betrayed when the Civil War amendments enfranchised newly freed black men but not white or black women.

Women first gained the right to vote in the Western US.

By the time the 19th Amendment was adopted in 1920, women had the right to vote almost everywhere except in the South.

The women's suffrage movement grew directly out of the antislavery movement:

shared its underlying ideas

shared many of its activists

AFRICAN AMERICANS AND VOTING RIGHTS

As mentioned earlier, this was an important aspect of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Unlike women, who achieved the right to vote with the passage of the 19th Amendment; the 15th Amendment was not able to overcome efforts to disenfranchise blacks until the US government became involved.

SUFFRAGE FOR YOUNG AMERICANS

This most recent expansion was also a political move

What motivated it?

The Vietnam War

Eighteen-year-olds were old enough to fight, therefore they were old enough to vote.

The only discernible consequence was the decline in voting that occurred when the right was extended to

eighteen-, nineteen-, and twenty-year-olds

CONSEQUENCES OF VOTING RIGHTS EXPANSION

Women did not alter the nature of politics. Indeed, no distinctive pattern of women's voting was evident until the 1980s.

The Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments did not prevent a century of racial discrimination at the polls.

only the Voting Rights Act quickly and effectively achieved its goals

WHO USES THE RIGHT TO VOTE?

The share of eligible voters who go to the polls has varied widely over American history.

The most important contemporary change was the sharp decline in voter turnout between 1960 and 1972:

since then, an average of only about 58 percent of the eligible electorate has bothered to register and vote in presidential elections

even the hotly contested 2008 race inspired a turnout of only about 61 percent

African Americans and Hispanics

African Americans and Hispanics are less likely to vote (taking other factors into account), as are people who live in southern states or those that border southern states.

INDIVIDUAL FACTORS AFFECTING TURNOUT

Age and education have the strongest influence on voting.

Turnout is also higher among people with stronger partisan views and electoral preferences.

If one lives in an area with more active parties and more competitive elections,

there is also an increased probability of voting.

In terms of gender,

In terms of gender, men and women are equally likely to turn out and vote.

The cynical and distrusting are as likely to vote as anyone else

contradicts a popular explanation for the decline in participation—that it resulted from an increase in public cynicism and mistrust since 1960

People with deeper roots in their community vote more often as do those with internal and external efficacy.

Turnout is higher in areas where there are fewer barriers to registration.

INDIVIDUAL FACTORS AFFECTING TURNOUT: WHY DO PATTERNS EMERGE?

Voting and other forms of political participation incur costs but produce benefits.

People participate when they can meet the costs and appreciate the benefits.

Those with money, education, experience, free time, and self-confidence find it easier to meet the costs, while those with a greater psychological stake receive greater benefits.

HOW DO VOTERS DECIDE?

Acquiring information that would decrease uncertainty can require a great deal of effort.

Most voters economize by using simple cues as cognitive shortcuts.

And voters rely heavily, if selectively, on the free information delivered by the news media, campaign advertising, and their own experience to inform their predictions.

PAST PERFORMANCE AND INCUMBENCY

One way to predict is to assess the past performance of the incumbent candidate or the majority party.

One simply rule is to vote for incumbents who have performed well.

President

President: national economy

But performance on what? Answer depends on the office, the circumstances, and what voters consider important.

...

Senators and representatives:

services and projects for their states and districts.

ASSESSING THE ISSUES AND POLICY OPTIONS

Another strategy for predicting which candidate will be the most satisfactory agent is to compare the future policy options they represent.

By their issue positions, ideological stances, and party affiliations, candidates offer choices among alternative national policies.

Party as a whole:

administration's overall performance

But which ones matter? This depends.

Single-issue voters make decisions based on one dominant issue.

Some voters consider a bundle of issues.

VOTER CUES AND SHORTCUTS

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Voters

Voters may take cues from opinion leaders.

Endorsements from organizations and individuals

party label

However, the most important information shortcut voters use to make predictions is party label.

Voters also make predictions based on the candidates' personal characteristics:

one set of personal considerations includes qualities such as competence, experience, honesty, knowledge, and leadership skills

THE POWER OF PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Party identification is the best single predictor of the vote in federal elections.

-has proven to be a strong predictor of the vote in any election in which candidates run under party labels.

The party label provides useful information for both:

performance voting (voting for the party in control, or "in-party" when one thinks the government is performing well; voting for the outs when one thinks the government is performing poorly)

issue voting (the typical positions of Republicans and Democrats;

the parties differ in predictable ways on many issues)

Most voters simplify their electoral evaluations and decisions by developing a consistent bias in favor of the candidates of one of the major parties, making the party label the most influential "endorsement" of all.

The partisan portion of the electorate has been growing since the 1970s:

In 2004 it reached 85 percent, its highest level yet, and 82.9% in 2008.

In 2008, about 95 percent

of the strong partisans voted for their own party's presidential candidates.

weaker partisans are less loyal but still strongly favored their party's candidate while independents split their votes.

rom 1952 to 2008,

From 1952 to 2008, typically about three-quarters of presidential voters were self-identified partisans supporting their party's candidates.

Defections

Defections (where those favoring one party support the candidate of another) usually range from 7.6 to 24.1 percent.

The proportion voting for independent or third party candidates

The proportion voting for independent or third party candidates varied from less than 1 percent to 15.3 percent.

Generally less than 10 percent of the public profess to be pure independents who claim to favor neither party.

George H. W. Bush (1989-1993)

George H. W. Bush—pork rinds and bass fishing

GETTING OUT THE MESSAGE

Try to connect to voters—"I can be your agent!"

Bill Clinton (1993-2001)

Bill Clinton—playing the saxophone

Can backfire at times:

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McGovern

McGovern ordered milk with his kosher hot dog while in a Jewish neighborhood

Gerald Ford

Gerald Ford and the tamale made all the networks

Michael Dukakis

Michael Dukakis and the tank garnered widespread ridicule

Acquiring and maintaining a public image appropriate to the office sought is a particular challenge for presidential candidates.

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Frontrunners get it the worst:

they are under constant scrutiny by their opponents and the news media

During debates, for example, candidates must meet the expectations of the media and the public in order to maintain an image of being prepared to be president.

Require considerable preparation

Show the presidential candidates up close under sustained pressure

Help frame the choice for voters.

Negative campaigning (pointed personal criticism of opposition), is thus a normal, if often ugly, and effective, component of the electoral process:

Examples below

NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING

Campaign messages emphasizing one candidate's personal suitability for the job invite rebuttals from the other side.

George H. W. Bush ads

against Dukakis in 1988

branding the opposition as soft on crime

McCain: Obama pals around with terrorists

negative or not, campaign ads are rarely subtle: rely on simplicity, repetition, exaggeration, and symbolism

Clinton's campaign employed a rapid response team:

Kerry in 2004 did not have a rapid response to ads run by the "Swift Boat Vets"

THE OTHER NECESSITY:

CAMPAIGN MONEY

A good candidate and a good message are not enough:

without money, the voters do not see the candidate or hear the message

In contemporary, candidate-centered campaigns, candidates (as opposed to the party organizations)

must assemble their own campaign teams, raise their own money, hire consultants and technical specialists, and design and execute their own individual campaign strategies.

Recent elections reflect the rise in cost.

Taxpayers

Taxpayers partially finance presidential campaigns, but most of the money spent on congressional elections comes from private sources.

REGULATING CAMPAIGN MONEY below

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Privately financed elections inevitably raise two related problems for American democracy:

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Democracy

Democracy demands political equality. But money is distributed very unequally, thus its role in electoral politics threatens democratic equality.

Privately

Privately financed elections raise the suspicion that elected officials will serve as the agents of their contributors rather than their constituents.

Pursuit of money can subvert the very purpose of elections.

Before the 1970s campaign money was effectively unregulated:

Congress had passed some limits on contributions and spending

As campaigns became more candidate-centered and broadcast campaigning became the standard,

costs increased the demand for money, but many began to fear that winners would favor contributors over constituents.

Congress-Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971

Congress responded to this situation with the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971, extensively amended in 1974.

This law

This law provided partial public funding for presidential campaigns and required full public reporting of, and strict limits on, all contributions and expenditures in federal elections:

Established the Federal Election Commission to enforce the law and to collect and publish detailed information on campaign contributions and expenditures.

Buckley v. Valeo (1976)

In Buckley v. Valeo (1976) the Supreme Court upheld the reporting requirements and contribution limits, but rejected spending limits on the ground that they interfered with political speech.

-Congress liberalized FECA in 1979

Congress liberalized FECA in 1979- Concerned that spending limits were choking off traditional local party activity in federal elections,

-amendment of the act allowed unrestricted contributions and spending for state and local party-building and get-out-the-vote activities (aka soft money).

1996 Court decision gave party organizations the right to unfettered independent spending as well.

Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act (BCRA)

In March of 2002 Congress passed a law prohibiting parties from raising and spending soft money for federal candidates:

THE FLOW OF CAMPAIGN MONEY
below

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Congressional candidates tap four basic sources for funds:

individuals
political action committees
their own pocketbooks
party organizations

All types of contributors and independent spenders distribute their funds strategically

coordinated expenditures

coordinated expenditures (expenditures on behalf of candidates for activities such as polling, producing ads, and conducting opposition research).

Contributors tend to favor winners:

Thus incumbents generally are favored.

Challengers have a more difficult time.

independent

independent expenditures go for campaign activities that are not supposed to be coordinated in any way with the candidate's campaign.

Candidates for open seats are usually in a much better position to raise funds:

Contributors correctly see open contests as their best opportunity for taking a seat from the other party.

Senate

Senate: television and radio ads lead the way

HOW ARE CAMPAIGN FUNDS SPENT?
below

Generally, campaign money is used to reach voters with the candidate's message:

-advertising is a key component:

House

House: persuasion mail

Only a small portion of spending is spent on traditional campaigning (direct candidate-voter interaction).

WHERE ARE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN FUNDS SPENT?
below

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Presidential candidates

Presidential candidates spend money based on their Electoral College strategy (most often on TV ads).

strategy

Since one needs to piece together enough state victories to win at least 270 electoral voters, the strategy is as follows:

-Concentrate on states that polls indicate could go either way and are populous enough to be beneficial (2008 battleground states: FL, PA, OH, VA), and

Ignore states that are locked up by either side.

Obama

In 2008 Obama succeeded in turning nine states from red to blue while holding all of the states won by John Kerry in 2004.

THE LOGIC OF ELECTIONS REVISITED
below

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Despite all the problems with U.S. elections,

Despite all the problems with U.S. elections, they work remarkably well in preserving democracy.

Citizens

Citizens can regularly pick their agents and fire those whose performances fall short.

Elections also create incentives for entrepreneurs and organizations to provide information and oversight and to mobilize voters:

This eliminates some of the cost of information gathering for the individual.

But these advantages to voters

But these advantages to voters are motivated by the fact that politically ambitious people have found it serves their own purposes to engage in the activities that forge the links between the public and government.

Elections induce

Elections induce candidates and campaigns to help solve the massive coordination problem faced by millions of voters trying to act collectively to control or replace their agents: offer competing frames for the voting decision.

clarify and focus the electoral choice to the point where rationally ignorant voters can manage it

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